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Showing posts from April, 2012

2012 MPSF Tourney Preview

The Mountain Pacific Sports Federation (MPSF) men's tournament begins tonight, with the top eight finishers in the conference standings taking part. The winner of the tournament receives an automatic berth in the four-team NCAA tournament, along with champions from the Eastern and Midwestern conferences. The one at-large bid almost certainly will go to the best remaining MPSF team after the conference tourney, as selected by an NCAA committee.

To help predict the outcome of the MPSF tournament (and down the line, the NCAA championship), I'm using what I call my Combined Offensive/Defensive ranking. Its main feature is the ratio of a team's hitting percentage for the season divided by the hitting percentage it allowed its opponents. When teams come from different conferences (as in an NCAA tournament), I also apply a multiplicative weight to each team's ratio to represent strength of conference, yielding what I call the CACOD (Conference-Adjusted Combined Offensive/Defe…