Controversy Over NCAA Rule Change on No. of Subs

On this week's episode of the Internet-radio show The Net Live, a spirited discussion broke out on the merits of this year's new NCAA women's rule expanding the number of substitutions from 12 to 15 per game/set (see link to the archived broadcasts in the right-hand column). Substitution policy clearly has analytic implications, thus making it a worthy topic for VolleyMetrics; I provide no statistics in this write-up.

This July 31 article focusing on the Nebraska program provides a lot of background perspective. A key impetus for the rule change appears to be the opportunity to get more players into matches. In terms of volleyball training, the substitution issue raises questions of player specialization vs. well-roundedness.  As the article notes:

With 15 substitutions, coaches will likely not have to worry about reaching their limit and can take out their top hitters when it is time to rotate to the back row, replacing them with passing and serving specialists...

“There are very few kids that are 6-foot-5 and athletic,” [Nebraska coach John] Cook said. “There are only so many to go around, and the top programs are going to get those. They won't have to worry about training them back row. There will be no equalizer when they have to go to the back row.

Of concern to some is how a greater trend toward specialization at the college level will impact the U.S. Olympic program. According to the article, "International rules allow only six subs per set and only one per set at each position, which means that players with all-around skills are preferred over elite specialists."

Some observers, such as UCLA athletic administrator and Net Live contributor Mike Sondheimer, believe having the number of substitutions at 15 facilitates running a 6-2 (two-setter) offense. Such an offense is potentially advantageous in that, by always having a setter in the back row (guaranteed by placing the two of them three positions apart in the rotation), the team can always have three hitters in the front row. The back-row setter thus runs up into the front row to set, once the ball is served (the only restriction is that a player originating in the back row cannot attack in front of the 10-foot line). In a 5-1 (one-setter) offense, half the time the setter is in the front row, leaving only two hitters.

The potential downside of a 6-2 is that, in addition to one setter always being in the back row, one also is always in the front row, where she or he can hit and block. Setters tend to be shorter than other players, however, potentially limiting their effectiveness as hitters and blockers. Bringing the discussion back to the substitution rule, my interpretation of Sondheimer's statement is the 15 opportunities make it easier to replace an undersized setter when she or he rotates into the front row, with a tall hitter/blocker specialist.