Women's 2011 College Previews -- SEC, ACC, and 9 Other Conferences!

Today, I present the final batch of 2011 women's college team previews. Having done comprehensive (i.e., every team) previews of the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 thus far, I didn't have time to do the same for all the remaining conferences, with play beginning in a little over a week! What I did, therefore, was look at last season's NCAA bracket and the newly released 2011 AVCA pre-season poll to select a manageable number of teams to preview.

I ended up with 23 new teams, from 11 conferences. If a school made the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney and/or received a substantial number of votes in the new pre-season poll (even if it didn't actually crack the top 25), then that team is included somewhere (either in today's preview or in one of the earlier ones).  When today's 23 teams are added to those reviewed earlier, it brings the total to 56 squads for which we now have capsule summaries.

Below is a chart (actually, two charts, given the large number of teams) that summarize the statistics, followed by some narrative commentary. The teams are organized by conference.

For those of you who've read the previous conference previews, the routine is old hat, but here it is for new visitors. In the charts below (which you can click on, and click again on the magnifying glass/plus icon that follows, to enlarge), you'll see information on teams' leading returning and non-returning players from last year. Statistics are based on the full 2010 season (conference plus non-conference), unless you see a pound sign (#) to indicate conference-only stats. To define leading hitters, I generally look for hitting percentages of .250 or higher and for players who took an appreciable share of their teams' spike attempts (generally 15% or more for middle blockers and 20% or more for outside hitters), although I'll post something that looks interesting to me, even if it doesn't fit within the aforementioned parameters. Specific block/set (game) and dig/set statistics are noted next to the names of team leaders either to illustrate a virtual tie between two players or, again, to convey something interesting.

Of course, returning players are not the only personnel on a team. The AVCA high-school All-America list is available here, so you can see which of the schools are bringing in nationally lauded prep players. Tennessee, Tulsa, and Pepperdine successfully recruited first-team All-Americans, whereas several other schools in today's preview are bringing in second-team and honorable-mention awardees.

OK, let's move on!

FLORIDA began the 2010 season on an auspicious note, going into Omaha (Nebraska's home away from home) and knocking off the Cornhuskers in an early-season tournament. A 3-1 loss to Penn State on the Gators' home court followed shortly thereafter. However, a perfect run through the SEC (coupled with some Penn State losses in the Big 10) gave Florida the No. 1 seed nationally in last year's NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for the Gators, they turned out not to be ready for Prime Time, barely surviving against Florida State in the round of 32 and then getting swept by Purdue in the Sweet 16.

Senior Kelly Murphy, who doubles as a setter and right-side (RS) hitter par excellence -- hitting .374 while taking 20% of Florida's spike attempts a year ago -- is back for her final go-round leading the Gators (see this YouTube highlights reel of the left-handed Murphy in action). Cassandra Anderson gives UF strength at the net, although fellow middle blocker Lauren Bledsoe has finished her college career. (Note that, because so many teams are reviewed today, not all players listed in the charts are discussed in the text.)

Also from the SEC, LSU returns a pair of plus-.300 hitters and its leading blocker and digger, whereas TENNESSEE brings back two plus-.300 hitters and someone who hit .298. The Vols also return two setters to feed the attack, plus their leading digger. As an aside, I discovered an excellent Tennessee fan site during my research for this report.

From the ACC, DUKE (No. 12 seed) got to the NCAA Elite Eight, where it took a game off of Penn State. The Blue Devils, in fact, were the only team outside the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 to make a regional final. Duke returns two plus-.300-hitting middle blockers, starting setter, and leading blocker and digger.

NORTH CAROLINA was a conundrum last year, taking second in the ACC, yet hitting only .210 as a team. The loss of Christine Vaughen, who hit .325 during her senior campaign, deprives the Tar Heels of what little offense they had. Setting, blocking, and digging are areas of experience for UNC this year, though. MIAMI, FLORIDA ST., and VIRGINIA TECH joined Duke and UNC in the NCAA field last year. On paper, the most interesting player to me among the latter three schools is the Hokies' Cara Baarendse, who hit .362 in ACC play while taking 20% of her team's spike attempts, unusually high for a middle blocker.

HAWAI'I returns two dynamic players, OH Kanani Danielson who last year hit .301 taking 31% of the team's spike attempts, and Brittany Hewitt who hit .365 and averaged 1.68 blocks/set (where I consider 1.00 to represent excellent blocking).

The Big West Conference's top two teams a year ago were Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State. The 49ers' Haleigh Hampton was another player who enjoyed a tremendous hitting/blocking year a season ago (.357, 1.58), her reward being a spot on the U.S. Junior National Team.

Two Ohio teams, DAYTON (from the Atlantic 10) and OHIO UNIVERSITY (from the Mid-America Conference) look to continue making inroads on the national scene. Ohio took Duke to five games in an NCAA second-round match last season. Like the aforementioned Hewitt and Hampton, the Bobcats' Katie Post posted impressive numbers hitting and blocking (.334/1.47). Overall, however, Ohio U. was one of those rare squads that did well a year ago, despite hitting only .232 as a team.

NORTHERN IOWA, WICHITA STATE, and CREIGHTON formed a formidable trio from the Missouri Valley Conference last season. Northern Iowa was seeded No. 5 nationally in the NCAA tourney (perhaps a bit generous) and dropped a five-game opening-round match to Missouri. I've been noting plus-.300 hitters throughout this report; UNI takes things a step further, boasting of two returnees, Michelle Burow and Krista DeGeest, whose 2010 hitting percentages were both north of .350. The Panthers' digging last year was delightful, as well, with Amy Braun (4.02, returning) and Ellie Blankenship (5.49, non-returning) racking up enormous digs/set numbers. Creighton's claim to fame is its NCAA first-round upset of Iowa State last year.

TULSA, from Conference USA, swept 13th-seeded LSU in an NCAA first-round match last year, then took intrastate rival Oklahoma to five games in a second-round loss. It almost sounds like a game of "Can you top this?" to state that Tulsa has two returning players whose hitting percentages exceeded .370, Tyler Henderson (.372, taking fully a third of the team's hitting attempts) and Elizabeth Kale (.402, albeit on only 9% of the Golden Hurricanes' attempts).

CINCINNATI and LOUISVILLE are the leading lights in the Big East Conference. Cincinnati loses what ESPN.com writer Dave Reed last year called "[o]ne of the most potent kill-producing combinations in the country," setter Annie Fesl and OH Stephanie Niemer. Both were seniors a year ago. Niemer took a whopping 36% of the team's spike attempts, but came through with a .331 percentage. The Bearcats do return Jordanne Scott, who hit .333 last year.

Over at Louisville, Gwen Rucker hit .414 (though on only 9% of the team's attempts) and averaged 1.30 blocks/set. Rucker and Cardinals teammate, setter Taylor Brauneis, are both part of the U.S. national team's development program. Beyond Rucker and Amanda Simmons, who hit .329 as a senior last year, Louisville was a very balanced hitting team, as four players each with at least 128 spike attempts in conference play hit for averages of .258, .262, .264, and 266.

Megan Plourde will likely be the go-to gal for COLORADO STATE of the Mountain West Conference. The 6-3 junior MB recorded hitting/blocking numbers of .383/1.23 last year in conference play.

Finally, we have the West Coast Conference, with SAN DIEGO, ST. MARY'S, and PEPPERDINE leading the way a year ago. USD, the conference's only NCAA-tournament team, swept Long Beach State and then lost 3-1 to powerhouse USC. The Toreros look to ride Chloe Ferrari, whose name provides irrestible pun opportunities, to success this season. She hit .403 as a frosh for USD last year. WCC runner-up St. Mary's returns MB Gabby Jolly, who hit .328. Finally, there's Pepperdine, who in the recently released AVCA pre-season rankings, had the highest voting point total of teams not in the top 25. The Waves return three players who hit between .280-.329 last year, plus they return their setter, leading blocker, and leading digger.

Done! Between this report and my three previous ones, we now have a repository of basic data on 56 of the nation's better teams. As the upcoming season unfolds, I'll be interested to see if there are some statistical markers that are associated with improvement or decline in the teams compared to a year ago (e.g., returning or losing starting setters; returning or losing players who took 25% or more of their teams' spike attempts and hit .300 or higher).

Let the games begin!

Women's 2011 College Previews -- The Pac 12

Penn State is obviously the dominant program in women's volleyball, having won the last four NCAA titles. Arguably, however, the second-, third-, and fourth-best teams a season ago were all from the Pac 10 (now 12), namely Cal (national runner-up), USC (Final Four participant), and Stanford (which ended Penn State's 109-match winning streak in September and ultimately lost a tight regional-final match to USC). In addition, Stanford (1st, .319), Cal (3rd, .308), and USC (8th, .290) all were among the nation's most highly ranked teams last season in hitting percentage.

Of the three schools, USC returns the greatest number of key players -- basically everyone -- whereas Cal and Stanford lose some top players. Another three Pac 12 schools -- UCLA, Washington, and Arizona -- were in last year's NCAA tournament, and will seek to improve their conference standing based on returning players and/or strong recruiting classes.

The following chart highlights the most noteworthy returning and departing players for all Pac 12 schools (including newcomers Colorado and Utah), in the statistical categories of hitting percentage, blocks/set (game), and digs/set from last season. As with my previous Big 10 and Big 12 previews, my general criteria for top hitters include an attack percentage of .250 or higher and taking an appreciable share of their teams' spike attempts (20% for outside/right-side hitters and 15% for middle blockers). Readers can click on the chart (and then on the magnifying-glass/plus icon that appears next) to enlarge it. All statistics in the chart are from the overall season (i.e., conference and non-conference matches), unless a pound sign (#) appears by the school's name to indicate the stats are from conference play only. Additional discussion of each team appears below the chart.

In writing these conference previews, I have discussed teams in order of their 2010 finishes in their respective league standings. I will stick to this practice here, but for the record, I would favor USC to win the Pac 12.

CAL loses only one of its leading players from last year -- but it happens to be the AVCA national player of the year! The player in question is setter Carli Lloyd, who during her senior campaign last season not only ran the high-powered Golden Bear offense, but also hit a respectable .265 on 283 tries (7% of the team's attempts) and contributed 1.08 blocks/set. (In the course of writing these previews, I've come to regard an average of 1.00 or greater blocks/set as a marker for excellence in blocking.)

Senior 6-3 OH Tarah Murrey is back to pummel the Bears' competition. Murrey took a whopping 36% of Cal's spike attempts last season. Such a proportion is rare, though not unheard of; what makes Murrey's 2010 season so extremely unique is her ability to maintain a hitting percentage well above .300 while taking so many attempts. Cal also returns 6-4 MB Correy Johnson, whose hitting percentage exceeded even Murrey's (see chart above). Enhancing their hitting depth, the Bears bring in a pair of first-team AVCA All-Americans, Michelle Neumayr, a 6-1 OH, and Lillian Schonewise, a 6-2 (6-3 according to the Cal website) MB.

Leading blockers Kat Brown and Shannon Hawari, and digging dynamo Robin Rostratter, return to bolster the Bears' defense. As of the spring, the starting setter gig (or what might be called the "Lloyd Void") was slated to fall to junior Elly Barrett, who participated in an online chat here.

At the other end of the San Francisco Bay, the loss of three senior stars from last year leaves doubt whether STANFORD can contend this year at its typical nationally elite level. Gone are Alix Klineman and Cassidy Lichtman, who together accounted for nearly 50% of the team's hitting attempts, plus leading libero Gabi Ailes. Lichtman also was a setter in the Cardinal's 6-2 offense, with returnee Karissa Cook. In the just-out Pac 12 coaches' poll, Stanford is picked for an uncharacteristically low fourth in the conference. Over at VolleyTalk, what might be considered a "hand-wringing" discussion thread about Stanford was launched and, at the moment, has reached 75 pages!
 
Stanford will never be devoid of talent and, indeed, there are strong returnees for the Cardinal. Junior OH Hayley Spelman, at 6-6 one of the tallest players in the country, hit above .300 last season. Further, Stephanie Browne (6-4) and Carly Wopat (6-2) each averaged over 1.00 blocks/set. In addition, Stanford will be adding two high-school All-American players, first-teamer Kyle (MacKenzie) Gilbert, a  5-7 defensive specialist/libero, and second-teamer Morgan Boutkather. The latter is either 6-2 or 6-1 tall (depending on which source one consults) and appears to be a right-side/opposite hitter (she is listed as an OH on the Stanford webpage, but the roster doesn't appear to differentiate between "outside" hitters on the left and "opposites" on the right).

Last year's third-place conference finisher, USC, is a unanimous pick to win the Pac 12 this year in the aforementioned poll (Cal received a first-place vote, but the article refers to the Trojans' receipt of "all 11 possible first-place votes," implying that coaches could not vote for their own teams). USC returns all of its key players from a year ago, including a trio of AVCA All-Americans: Alex Jupiter (6-3 senior OH, 1st team), Kendall Bateman (5-11 senior setter, 2nd team), and Lauren Williams (6-4 senior MB, 3rd team).

OH Falyn Fonoimoana, another tall Trojan at 6-4, was given nearly a quarter of the team's hitting attempts last season as a freshman, recording an attack percentage of .239. If she can improve on that percentage, 'SC will be that much more dangerous. Even the liberos are tall on this team, with 5-9 Natalie Hagglund, leading the team in digs/set last year as a freshman.

As unstoppable as USC looks this year, it also appeared poised to do real damage in last year's Final Four until Cal put the brakes on the Trojan attack. With a single-elimination NCAA tournament, anything seemingly can happen at the end.

Across town in Los Angeles, UCLA will be trying to return to the national elite under second-year coach Mike Sealy. Last year's workhorse hitter, Dicey McGraw, has finished her college career, whereas the Bruins' top statistical returning attacker, junior OH Bojana Todorovic, hit only .230.

Last year's team leader in blocks/set, Katie Camp, discusses her recovery from ACL surgery and prospects for the upcoming season here. Digs/set leader Lainey Gera also returns.

The Bruins have a large and highly touted recruiting class coming in this season, although only 6-3 MB  Zoe Nightingale (first team) was on the AVCA high-school All-America squad. Setter Megan Moenoa has also received a lot of buzz. Last year's starting setter Lauren Van Orden returns for her senior season. Whether Moenoa will join Van Orden in a 6-2 offense remains to be seen.

Things appear to be looking up for WASHINGTON, as last year's fifth-place Huskies are tabbed for third in the coaches' poll. U-Dub loses a pair of senior, second-team All-America outside hitters from a year ago, Kindra Carlson and Becky Perry, as well as last year's senior setter, Jenna Hagglund.

Bianca Rowland, a 6-0 MB who last year recorded gaudy numbers in both hitting and blocking, returns for her senior season. She received AVCA honorable mention All-America honors last year. Other returning defensive assets for the Huskies are Lauren Barfield, a 6-5 senior MB, and sophomore DS/L Jenna Orlandini, who led the team in digs/set a year ago.

First-team high-school All-America Krista Vansant, a 6-2 OH comes on board; as noted above, Washington's greatest losses were at this position.

Last year's sixth-place team, ARIZONA, is predicted by the coaches to drop a notch to seventh this year, perhaps not surprisingly given that the Wildcats were a senior-oriented team a year ago. Key losses include Tiffany Owens, who not only carried the Cats' hitting load last season (hitting .262 while taking 30% of the team's attempts), but also led the team in digs/set; and setter Paige Weber. Cursty Jackson, a 6-2 MB who excelled in hitting and blocking last year, returns for her senior year.

Joining Jackson will be an impressive recruiting class that includes four high-school Americans: Chloe Mathis (5-10 or 5-11 setter, height varies by source; 1st team), Madison Kingdon (6-1 OH, 2nd team), Halli Amaro (6-2 or 6-0 MB, honorable mention), and Elizabeth Manthei (6-0 OH who also set in high school, honorable mention).

OREGON's front-court play may be a little weaker this season. Heather Meyers, who hit .285 while taking a quarter of the Ducks' spike attempts during her senior season, moves on. Also, Jocelyn Levig, who led Oregon in blocks/set, is transferring to the University of San Francisco. Leading Duck returnees are OH Alaina Bergsma (6-3 junior), setter Lauren Plum (5-9 soph), and libero Haley Jacob (5-2 junior). Joining Oregon will be first-team high-school All-America Elizabeth Brenner (6-2 or 6-1 tall), who played MB as a prep but is listed on the Ducks' roster as an OH.

ARIZONA STATE's biggest strength appears to be blocking, with MB's Sonja Markanovich (6-1 senior) and Erica Wilson (6-1 junior) returning. Wilson also hit .318, taking 11% of the Sun Devils' attack attempts. Presumably, ASU will go to her more often this season. Setter Cat Highmark had one year of eligibility remaining, but will forgo her senior season due to knee injury.

OREGON STATE returns some promising players, foremost among them 6-4 soph MB Mona Kressl, who averaged 1.16 blocks/set and nearly hit .300 a year ago. Junior setter Megan McBride, who also hit .267, returns, as do 5-11 junior Ashley Eneliko, a productive blocker who has been used at opposite hitter and middle blocker; and sophomore L/DS Becky Defoe, who led the squad in digs/set last year.

WASHINGTON STATE, which went 0-18 in conference play last year, is in a state of transition. The athletic director's first move after last season was to give the volleyball team a greeny -- no, not amphetamines, the slang for which is "greenies," but rather a new coach, Jen Greeny. Also as part of the Cougars' turnover, a few non-senior players from last year are no longer on the WSU roster. Digs/set leader Oceana Bush has transferred to Rutgers, whereas for two other departees, I couldn’t find any articles on what happened with them. Hoping to provide some stability is 6-3 senior OH Meagan Ganzer, who took an amazing 38% of the Cougars' spike attempts last season (albeit hitting only .149) and led the team in blocks/set.

And now for the newcomers. COLORADO made the NCAA tournament in 10 of the first 11 years of Big 12 play (1996-2006), but were a combined 13-67 in that conference the last four years. Moving to the Pac 12 hardly seems like a good recovery plan, but the Buffaloes may be able to compete with some of the weaker teams in the new conference. As seen in the chart above, Colorado returns all of its leading players. However, no one was close last year to (unofficial) markers of distinction such as .300 hitting and 1.00 blocks/set. On a more positive note, soph DS/L Megan Beckwith averaged 4.10 digs/set last year in the Big 12, which placed her 10th in that conference.

UTAH finished third last year in the Mountain West Conference, but did not make the NCAA tourney. Two returning Ute middle blockers, Danielle Killpack (6-3 senior) and Erin Redd (6-3 sophomore), each hit over .300 last year, with Kilpack also leading the team in blocks/set.

Women's 2011 College Previews -- The Big 12 (-2)

In the history of the Big 12 Conference (and its forerunners, the Big 8 and Southwest Conferences), there have been two nationally elite programs, Nebraska (winner of three national titles, most recently in 2006) and Texas (participant in the last three Final Fours and national champion in 1988). Nebraska is now gone to the Big 10, so for now at least, Texas seems to be in a dominant position in the Big 12.

Let's start with my chart of capsule summaries of the teams, with additional discussion of each team below (you'll need to click on the chart, and possibly on the plus-sign magnifying glass icon that will appear next, to enlarge it). As noted previously in my Big 10 preview, when it comes to teams' leading hitters, I'm generally looking for hitting percentages of .250 or better, and players who take appreciable shares of their teams' spike attempts (20% for outside hitters and 15% for middle blockers).

As hinted at by the high 2010 hitting percentages shown for TEXAS spikers, the Longhorns were one of the best attacking teams in the nation last year. Texas finished fourth, to be exact, with a .306 hitting percentage, behind only Stanford (.319), and last year's NCAA finalists, Penn State (.314) and Cal (.308). In addition, Longhorn MB Rachael Adams, who returns for her senior season, led the nation in individual hitting percentage. Sha'Dare McNeal, who is listed on the team roster as a utility player, perhaps due to her digging, as well as hitting, prowess, is also back.

The Horns lose high-percentage hitter Jennifer Doris and workhorse Juliann Faucette. However, they have a bunch of new (and redshirt-returnee) players who may be able to help take up the slack. Freshman Madelyn Hutson (6-5) received the dual recognition of being named a first-team AVCA high school All-America last year and being selected to the U.S. women's junior national team. Hutson was listed as an outside hitter on the AVCA site, but is referred to as a "utility" player on the Texas site (perhaps she will also be tried at middle blocker). Two other freshmen are first-team All-American Katherine (Khat) Bell, a high school MB who will also be tried at OH (either 6-3 or 6-1 tall, as player heights sometimes differ between official school rosters and other sources, such as the AVCA list) and OH Haley Eckerman (6-3), a member of the junior national team. Other possibilities on the front line are sophomore  Bailey Webster (6-3 OH), who is attempting a comeback from missing the 2010 season due to knee surgery, and redshirt-freshman Ashley Bannister, returning from an ankle injury.

Texas is also deep at setter, returning two who saw considerable action last year, sophomore Hannah Allison, yet another Longhorn member of the junior national team, and senior Michelle Kocher. Though a two-setter (6-2) offense might seem a natural for UT, coach Jerritt Elliott's squad seemed to employ mostly a one-setter (5-1) line-up last year.

As a game-show announcer describing a prize-package would say, "...and that's not all!" UT's leaders from last year in blocks/set (game), the aforementioned Adams, and digs/set, senior Sydney Yogi, return as well (Yogi has had injury problems, however).

If this isn't enough Longhorn coverage for you, VolleyTalk has a thread discussing the upcoming Texas season, which has stretched to 10 pages!

Tied for third last year behind Nebraska and Texas was IOWA STATE. Few programs, in any sport, have experienced the kind of overnight turnaround as Iowa State did in 2005 with the arrival of coach Christy Johnson-Lynch. As seen in the graph below, the Cyclones had several 1-19 conference records (along with a 0-20 campaign) prior to Johnson-Lynch's arrival. In her first year, ISU shot up to nine wins, and the team has had a winning Big 12 record each season ever since. In the postseason, the Cyclones have gone as far as the Elite Eight, although last year the team suffered a first-round exit.

Johnson-Lynch and one of her former players discuss what they see as the reasons for the program's turnaround, in this November 2009 video. The statistical information on which I based the chart is available here.

This year's Cyclone squad will be led by junior Jamie Straube, an honorable-mention All-America who put up excellent numbers hitting and blocking last season. However, first-team All-America Victoria Henson, ISU's go-to hitter with 30% of the team's spike attempts, has finished her collegiate career. Star libero Ashley Mass, a third-team All-America, has also finished up. Setter Alison Landwehr, who also hit .370 on 246 attempts (6% of the team's total), returns. Also, Iowa State has added an honorable-mention high school All-America for this season, 6-3 MB Tory Knuth.

Sharing third place last year with ISU was OKLAHOMA, which also made the NCAA Sweet 16 before running into the buzzsaw called Penn State. The Sooners return third-team All-America setter Brianne Barker (a senior), plus their 2010 team leaders in hitting (from both the outside and middle), blocking, and digging. Soph MB Sallie McLaurin hit over .300 and led the team in blocks/set. Suzy Boulavsky, a 6-1 senior listed as both an outside hitter (hitting from the left-hand side) and right-side hitter, took a quarter of OU's spike attempts last season and acquitted herself well, hitting .273. Leading digger Maria Fernanda (junior) rounds out the returnees. The Sooners also bring in 6-2 OH Tara Dunn, a second-team high-school All-America.

MISSOURI, the final Big 12 team to make the NCAA field last year (also making the Sweet 16), will be led by Brittney Brimmage, a 6-3 senior who is listed at both MB and OH. Brimmage hit .331 last season and led the team in blocks/set, and is part of U.S. women's volleyball development program. First-team high-school All-America Jade Hayes, a six-footer who played OH as a prep, is also highly touted defensively and apparently will also be tried at libero, potentially replacing last year's senior Caitlyn Vann. Highly decorated sophomore setter Molly Kreklow, a junior national team player, is back to run the offense.

To the extent the BAYLOR Bear program has left its mark (or in this case, paw print) on women's college volleyball in recent years, it is largely through stunning UCLA in Pauley Pauley in the 2009 NCAA second round, before losing in the round of 16. Baylor failed to build on that success in 2010, and the loss of some key talent may make it difficult for the Bears to reach the postseason in 2011. Elizabeth Graham, who hit .307 and led the team in blocks/set last year has moved on, as has digging dynamo Caitlyn Trice. MB Torri Campbell, a 6-2 junior, hit just about as well as Graham last year. Campbell recorded an average of .86 blocks/set, not too far from the 1.00 per set that top blockers are often able to reach (Graham was way up there at 1.29, third among Big 12 players for the overall -- conference and non-conference -- season). The Bears' two setters, Kate Harris and Brittany Ridenour, are both back.

KANSAS last made the NCAA tourney in 2005. Given how tough the conference has become (even with Nebraska's departure), I don't know if KU can make it back this year, but it has a good young nucleus. The Jayhawks return leading hitter and blocker Caroline Jarmoc (sophomore), leading digger Brianne Riley (sophomore), and setter Nicole Tate (senior). Joining the squad is second-team high-school All-America, Chelsea Albers, a 6-0 OH. 

The first nine years of the Big 12 (1996-2004), TEXAS A&M enjoyed steady success, winning between 12-16 conference matches a year (out of 20) and making the NCAA tournament in every season. The past six years, however, the conference win totals have been 9, 5, 10, 11, 11, and 7, with only two NCAA tourney appearances during that time (2005, 2009). If the longtime Aggie coaching duo of Laurie and John Corbelli is to get things turned back around this season, it will probably be through defense. In fact, one could say that team cohesion will be a product of 3M: Miller, Minnerly, and Mellinger. Junior 6-2 middle-blockers Lindsey Miller and Stephanie Minnerly each exceeded 1.00 blocks/set last season. Leading digger Tori Mellinger is also a junior. Finally, sophomore setter Allie Sawatsky appears to use her 6-2 height to good purpose, contributing .48 blocks/set last year.

KANSAS STATE is in a bit of a funk like Texas A&M. After reaching seven NCAA tournaments in the eight years from 2001-2008, K-State has compiled identical 6-14 records each of the last two seasons. In their effort to get things back on track, the Wildcats do have one major force, namely 6-1 junior Alex Muff, who finished second in the Big 12 last year in overall-season blocks/set with 1.31, behind only Nebraska's Brooke Delano (1.42). Big 12 opponents have learned that if you go up against Alex Muff, you're likely to suffer a stuff! Muff's fellow middle-blocker Kaitlynn Pelger (sophomore) hit slightly higher than Muff, but both were only around .250. Junior setter Caitlyn Donahue is back to run the office. (Before leaving the discussion of K-State, I wanted to mention this amazing fan page for the volleyball team.)

Finally, we get to TEXAS TECH, the school at which I've been on the faculty for 14 years. Over the last few years, the Red Raider program has hit rock bottom, losing 64 straight Big 12 matches until finally winning one last October. As well, the midseason departure of then-coach Trish Knight last season contributed to the image of a sinking ship. Into this setting marches new coach Don Flora,* most recently an assistant at New Mexico State (Beth Falls, who went from Texas Tech assistant coach to interim coach, remains with the Red Raiders as an assistant under Flora).

The 2011 Red Raiders' fortunes would seem to be heavily in the hands of 6-3 senior Amanda Dowdy, who toured Europe this summer with one of the U.S. women's developmental squads. Dowdy took an astounding 36% of Texas Tech's spike attempts last season, but hit only .170. That hitting percentage potentially could be somewhat misleading if either (a) opponents focused their block on her because Tech didn't have other big hitters to divert attention; or (b) the huge number of attempts caused fatigue.  Dowdy has been switched between OH and MB during her time in Lubbock, but is listed only at OH this year.

One coup for Texas Tech was the signing of honorable-mention high-school All-America Breeann David. Though she apparently did some setting in high school, the 5-11 (or 6-0, depending on which source you believe) David is listed exclusively as an OH by Tech. With her setting ability, however, she may be able to salvage some out-of-system plays.

Karlyn Meyers, who did most of the setting last season, returns for her senior year. However, the team's leaders last year in blocks/set (Barbara Conceicao, 1.03) and digs/set (Jackie Vincent) are gone, as seen in this photo gallery from last year's Senior Day.

As of this writing, the Red Raider roster has 23 players listed, which should spark fierce competition for spots on the team!

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*I've gotten to know Coach Flora, which I wanted to disclose so readers can take this information into account regarding the tone of my writing about Texas Tech (whether it seems overly favorable or critical).

Women's 2011 College Previews -- The Big 10 (+2)

This year, I'm introducing a new feature. Beginning with today's preview of the upcoming women's season in the Big 10 (which actually consists of 12 teams, including newcomer Nebraska), I will preview a different major NCAA Division I conference each week (roughly), leading into the season.

The Big 10 seems like a good conference to begin with, as the league not only produced last year's national champion, Penn State, but six additional schools that made the round of 16 or better (Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska). Plus, I went to graduate school at Michigan (which will be evident below from my lengthy preview of the Wolverines!) and have taught a couple times as a visiting professor at Wisconsin.

As seen in the following chart, I start by looking at each school's returning and non-returning statistical leaders from last year, in the categories of hitting, blocking, and digging. To define success as an attacker, I look not only at a player's hitting percentage (which I generally restrict to .250 or higher), but also at whether she took a sizable proportion of her team's spike attempts (which I define, approximately, as 20% or more of a team’s attempts for outside and right-side hitters, and 15% or more for middle blockers).  Whether a team returns its starting setter (in a one-setter offense) or setters (in a two-setter scheme) is also noted. Below the chart, I further discuss each team, including its incoming players.

Unless you have amazingly good eyesight, you'll need to click on the chart (and possibly on the plus-sign magnifying glass icon that will appear next) to enlarge it. Information for each team is based on 2010 full-season statistics, unless noted otherwise (# indicates statistics are from conference play only, and @ represents statistics from a pre-NCAA-final press release). All players listed as AVCA high school All-Americans are first-team honorees, unless noted otherwise.

The natural place to start discussion is with PENN STATE, winner of the last four NCAA national championships and defending Big 10 champion. The Nittany Lions lose three key seniors from last year, middle-blocker Arielle Wilson, right-side hitter Blair Brown, and defensive specialist/libero Alyssa D'Errico. However, last year's frosh sensation Deja McClendon (outside hitter), team blocks/set (game) leader Katie Slay, and setter Kristin Carpenter return. Joining Penn State's roster will be AVCA high school All-America Aiyana Whitney (6-5 OH), plus OH Darcy Dorton is attempting to come back from a torn ACL that sidelined her last season (you can follow her "tweets" as she progresses).

Minnesota and Illinois tied for second in the conference last year. The 2011 season promises to be one of great transition for MINNESOTA, as longtime coach Mike Hebert retired after last season and new coach Hugh McCutcheon will not join the team until after completing his stint with the 2012 U.S. women's Olympic team (McCutcheon also coached the U.S. men to an Olympic gold medal in 2008). Minnesota's interim coach will Laura Bush (not that one!). On the court, Minnesota loses hitting and blocking star Lauren Gibbemeyer, seen in her Senior Night ceremony last season. Notable returnees are MB Tori Dixon and Jessica Granquist, the top digging Gopher. Coming to the Twin Cities will be second-team high school All-America Morgan Bohl (6-0 OH).

Last year, ILLINOIS had to cope with the loss of All-America Laura DeBruler much earlier than expected, as the senior OH tore her ACL midway through the season, thus ending her collegiate career. Undaunted, the Illini fought on, making the NCAA Sweet 16 where they lost a five-game match to Texas on the Longhorns' home court. Colleen Ward, who began her Illinois career last year after transferring from Florida, returns in an outside-hitting role, with libero Jennifer Bonilla, a U.S. junior national team selection, roaming the backcourt. Two AVCA high school All-Americans will join the Illini, 6-2 OH Jocelynn Birks and 6-0 right-side Ali Stark.

MICHIGAN, which appeared on its way to a promising 2010 season after beating Minnesota and Illinois early in conference play, faded late in the season and was eliminated in the NCAA first round in a difficult match-up against Washington in Seattle. The Wolverines return all their key players -- except star setter Lexi Zimmerman, who also hit .253 on 458 spike attempts (11% of the team's attempts). Lefty Alex Hunt, a hitting threat from the front and backcourt, spearheads the Maize and Blue attack, along with Claire McElheny. Jennifer Cross, a 6-4 MB, lends hitting and blocking strength, whereas Sloane Donhoff leads in digging.

One of the leading candidates to succeed Zimmerman at setter is another Lexi, high school All-America Lexi Dannemiller, with junior Catherine Yager (who obviously would not have played much behind Zimmerman) also in the running, according to coach Mark Rosen. The Wolverines also feature sophomore OH Lexi Erwin. Apparently Michigan is the place to go if your name is Lexi! Another high school All-America coming to Ann Arbor is 6-2 MB Lauren Teknipp.

PURDUE is coming off what its athletics website terms a "breakout" season, in which the Boilermakers defeated Penn State in a conference match and swept then-No. 1 Florida in the NCAA tourney to advance to the Elite Eight. Two big senior losses from last year are Jaclyn Hart, a third-team All-America at setter, and MB Kristen Arthurs. MB Tiffany Fisher and defensive specialist Carly Cramer do return. Honorable mention All-America Valerie Nichol, listed as both a setter and hitter, joins the Boilermakers.

MB Kelli Barhorst leads OHIO STATE. She hit nearly .300 and (barely) led the Buckeyes in blocks/set last year. Though senior losses are evident at outside hitter, setter, and (second) middle blocker, Ohio State returns DS/L Sarah Mignin to patrol the backcourt. High school All-Americans, setter Taylor Sherwin and OH Alyssa Winner, may be able to help fill the voids at their respective positions.

INDIANA and NORTHWESTERN have a lot in common. Not only did the two schools tie for seventh in the Big 10 last year with 9-11 records, but also both teams lose their top hitting and blocking talent from a year ago (three-time All-Conference player Ashley Benson for IU, and two-time honoree Sabel Moffett for Northwestern). One advantage for the Hoosiers is that they return both setters from a two-setter offense. The Wildcats will be bringing in second-team high school All-America DS/L Caroline Niedospial and honorable mention designee Hannah Crippen, a 6-0 athlete listed as both a setter and hitter.

MICHIGAN STATE, on the other hand, returns most of its team leaders, including All-Conference pick and top MSU hitter Jenilee Rathje. Plus, the Spartans add high school All-America DS/L Kori Moster. MSU was the highest-finishing Big 10 squad not to make the NCAA tournament last year, but the large cast of returnees would seem to give MSU a good chance this year.

WISCONSIN, a school that just a few years ago was making the NCAA Sweet 16 and Elite Eight and, going back a little further, the NCAA championship final, obviously fell on hard times last year. Hitting and blocking leader Alexis Mitchell returns, as does setter Janelle Gabrielsen. Also, the Badgers bring in a pair of second-team high school All-Americans, Crystal Graff (6-3 OH), a hometown player from right in Madison, and Deme Morales, who at 5-7 played MB in high school but apparently will be tried at DS for Wisconsin. We'll see if this year's team can give the (roughly) 4,000 fans per match who have long been coming to the old Fieldhouse something to cheer about.

Not surprisingly for a last-place team, IOWA did not have a lot of big hitters last year. Mallory Husz, who returns as a senior, led the Hawkeyes with a .238 attack percentage (excluding one other player who had a very small number of spike attempts), as well as in blocks/set. Leading digger Bethany Yeager, is one of two Hawkeyes involved with U.S. national team developmental squads, along with sophomore OH Rachael Bedell. Two high school All-America designees, second-team Alexandra Lovell (5-10 OH) and honorable-mention Erin Leppek (6-0 MB) will try to add to Iowa's offensive firepower.

Finally, we get to NEBRASKA, a new arrival from the Big 12 (-2), whose conference championship the Huskers won a year ago. Nebraska will not be strangers to the top Big 10 teams, having played many of them in recent years. From 2006-2010, the Huskers were 7-2 against Big 10 opposition (losing to Penn State in 2008 and to Michigan in 2009), while defeating Illinois, Michigan, MSU, and PSU once each, and Minnesota thrice (here are links to Nebraska's results from 2010 and earlier).

Dominant 6-4 MB Brooke Delano returns for her senior season, although excellent right-side hitter Lindsey Licht has finished her college career. Likewise, libero Kayla Banwarth, who led the team last year in digs/set, is gone. According to a Big Red Today article:

The Huskers ran a 6-2 offense last year with senior Sydney Anderson and [returnee] Lauren Cook sharing time at setter. They do have 6-foot-5 right-side hitter Morgan Broekuis, who also could play setter, but John Cook says they’ll likely go with a 5-1.

“We’re running a 5-1 right now,” Cook said. “We’re trying to get our six best players on the court is what we’re trying to do. We need Morgan to kill balls right now. We don’t have enough outside hitters to run a 6-2.”

The Huskers' hitting depth is likely to be enhanced, however, by three incoming high school All-Americans, Taylor Simpson (OH 6-4), Lara Dykstra (second-team; OH 5-11), and Shelby Winkelmann (second-team; MB 5-9). Winklemann is also a highly touted basketball prospect.

Coinciding with my preview is a discussion thread on VolleyTalk, in which fans of Big 10 teams propose starting line-ups for their favorite squads. Here you can compare the statistical leaders I've identified above with fans' projections of different teams' starting units.

Tristan Burton Launches "Volleyball Analytics"

Tristan Burton, whose work has been discussed from time to time on this site, has launched his own page, which he's calling Volleyball Analytics. I welcome Tristan to the "club" of volleyball bloggers/webmasters and wish him the best with his site.

Buckeyes Triumph to Conclude Bizarro Season

The NCAA men's volleyball season concluded last night. For UC Santa Barbara, which vanquished powerhouse USC in Thursday's semifinals, the Gauchos' gaudy hitting percentages of late (roughly .400 at the team level and as high as the .800s at the individual level) were (for the most part) nowhere to be found. Instead, it was an Ohio State squad, whose season featured such inauspicious outings as a loss to UC San Diego and a five-game match with Princeton, left standing.

The championship-match scores were 20-25, 25-20, 25-19, 22-25, and 15-9.

The hitting heroes last night were wearing Buckeye red and white (box score). Grayson Overman hit .800 with 12 kills and no errors on 15 attempts (fear the faux-hawk!). Shawn Sangrey played more of a workhorse role, garnering 30 kills (with 9 errors) on 54 attempts (.389). OSU hit .329 as a team, compared to .198 for Santa Barbara. The Gauchos' stalwart, Jeff Menzel, was barely in positive territory (.025).

Obviously, winning Game 2 was important for Ohio State, not only to prevent an 0-2 deficit, but also (at least in retrospect) for how it seemed to shock UCSB. What I thought was key to Game 2 was OSU's high siding-out percentage (76%), which prevented the Gauchos from getting much traction whenever they went back to serve. In the decisive Game 5, the Buckeyes took siding out to a new level, 100%, while hitting .714 for the game.

The Buckeyes had 26 service errors, although a lot of them were at the beginning of the match. Perhaps the risky serving was an attempt by OSU to signal right from the start that it would be pulling out all the stops to try to win.

UCSB Does It Again, Will Face Ohio State in Final

I was skeptical of whether UC Santa Barbara could replicate its .395 hitting percentage against USC in the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation men's tournament final, in the teams' NCAA Final Four rematch last night. Boy, was I wrong! The Gauchos hit virtually the identical percentage, .394, in beating the Trojans again, 29-27, 24-26, 25-15, 25-18 (box score). 'SC hit .333.

As shown in the following graph, the Gauchos' individual hitting percentages varied between the MPSF final and NCAA semifinal. It was as if the Trojans made a concerted -- and successful -- effort to stop Jeff Menzel, but the increased attention on him left openings for other UCSB hitters.

As Trojan Coach Bill Ferguson said in his post-match press conference [bracketed annotations by me]:

When you look at our match last week with them, Jeff Menzel killed us, Scott Slaughter killed us, and [tonight] we did an unbelievable job I thought, keeping Menzel hitting .071. We kept Slaughter under .300. We kept him at .250, which I thought was pretty unreal. We did a real good job there. [Tonight] Cullen Irons killed us and Dylan Davis was nothing short of amazing... Last time we played them, everyone on their team that was on the floor hit over three hundred. This time it was .071 for Menzel and .250 for Slaughter. That was great, but Irons and Davis definitely made up for it. [Trey]Valbuena had big numbers but I don’t know if that was necessarily our downfall.

By many accounts, the main reason why Santa Barbara was able to hang in there early and pull away late was USC's 20 service errors. Said Ferguson, "If you look at the stat lines throughout the night, we were outhitting them until, I believe, the fourth set. We were out-blocking them. But every time we got some momentum, we went back to the [service] line and missed. That gutted us." (Annotation in original transcript.)

Having admitted my erroneous prediction about the Gauchos not being able to match their hitting percentage from the MPSF final, let me mention another claim where I feel I was right. I was in a very small minority among the voting panel for the Off the Block Blocker of the Year award in giving strong consideration to USC's Steven Shandrick, ultimately recommending him for second place. I feel vindicated by the fact that Shandrick recorded a match-high eight blocks in the Final Four match against UCSB.

The Trojans' aptly named Murphy Troy was close behind with seven blocks, part of USC's plan to counteract the top Gaucho hitters (see the press conference question to Ferguson, "Coach can you talk about how you were able to contain Slaughter and Menzel?").

Oh yeah, one other match was played Thursday night, to determine the other finalist in Saturday night's title match. Ohio State beat Penn State on the Nittany Lions' home court. I would make UCSB a heavy favorite to take the title, but given how unpredictable things have been lately, who knows?